Why Did The Polls Get It Wrong In 1992? :: essays research papers fc

Why Did the Polls Get it Wrong in 1992?Opinion survey play a major intention in politics, they can be used by the Governmentto decide when to call and election, and, among other things, how their pre-election campaigns ar run. Throughout the history of opinion polling, from the duration when polling began to be widely used before an election, in 1945, until1987, the last general election before 1992, the poll make on average beencorrect to indoors 1.3% of the vote share between the three leading parties, andthe other category (Crewe, 1992, p. 478). This pieces all the previous opinionpolls nearly within the +/-3% margin of error. Because of the past verity ofopinion polling, the system has had great credibility and has always beentrusted, both by the public, and political parties. The way polling forecastscan imply the way people vote is truly dramatic, this is because they can be aself fulfilling prophecy, in that some voters like to back the winning team,and others only vote for a ships company they feel has a real chance. This was demonstrate in 1983, when the Alliance, frustrated with the media concentratingonly on their position in the polls, leaked their own private polls to the press,resulting in a late surge of support (Crewe, 1992, p.478).Britain slackly has a much greater number of opinion polls carried out than inother countries, this is due to the salient number of national newspapers, and theamount of actual affairs programming on television. The period prior to the1992 general election saw a much greater intensity of opinion polling than everbefore. During the 29 days between the date of the announcement of the actualelection date, 11th March, and the election date itself, 9th April, there werea total of no less than 57 national opinion polls.The 1992 election will always be remembered as the one the pollsters got wrong,during the lead up to the election, they approximately all showed press ahead of theTories. Of the tetrad polls carried out in the two days prior to the actualelection date, all of them pointed to a hung fan tan one put theConservatives 0.5% ahead, one put Labour and the Tories neck and neck, the othertwo showed Labour ahead by a narrow margin (Crewe, 1992, p. 8). On the actualday of the election, exit polls carried out by the BBC and ITN both showed therewould be a hung parliament, although both of them had the Conservatives slightlyahead. They were both not off the beaten track(predicate) from the actual Conservative 43%, and Labour 35%,Why Did The Polls Get It Wrong In 1992? essays research papers fc Why Did the Polls Get it Wrong in 1992?Opinion polls play a major role in politics, they can be used by the Governmentto decide when to call and election, and, among other things, how their pre-election campaigns are run. Throughout the history of opinion polling, from thetime when polling began to be widely used before an election, in 1945, until1987, the last general election before 1 992, the polls have on average beencorrect to within 1.3% of the vote share between the three leading parties, andthe other category (Crewe, 1992, p. 478). This puts all the previous opinionpolls well within the +/-3% margin of error. Because of the past accuracy ofopinion polling, the system has had great credibility and has always beentrusted, both by the public, and political parties. The way polling forecastscan affect the way people vote is very dramatic, this is because they can be aself fulfilling prophecy, in that some voters like to back the winning team,and others only vote for a party they feel has a real chance. This wasdemonstrated in 1983, when the Alliance, frustrated with the media concentratingonly on their position in the polls, leaked their own private polls to the press,resulting in a late surge of support (Crewe, 1992, p.478).Britain generally has a much greater number of opinion polls carried out than inother countries, this is due to the large number of nation al newspapers, and theamount of current affairs programming on television. The period prior to the1992 general election saw a much greater intensity of opinion polling than everbefore. During the 29 days between the date of the announcement of the actualelection date, 11th March, and the election date itself, 9th April, there werea total of no less than 57 national opinion polls.The 1992 election will always be remembered as the one the pollsters got wrong,during the lead up to the election, they almost all showed Labour ahead of theTories. Of the four polls carried out in the two days prior to the actualelection date, all of them pointed to a hung parliament one put theConservatives 0.5% ahead, one put Labour and the Tories neck and neck, the othertwo showed Labour ahead by a narrow margin (Crewe, 1992, p. 8). On the actualday of the election, exit polls carried out by the BBC and ITN both showed therewould be a hung parliament, although both of them had the Conservatives slightlya head. They were both not far from the actual Conservative 43%, and Labour 35%,